Sustainable Agricultural System : Linking Food Supply And Land Conservation

Abstract

The conversion of rice fields is increasingly difficult to control, as it continues in line with population growth and the expanding demand for economic and infrastructure development, thereby posing a serious threat to food security. This study aims to analyze the factors driving agricultural land conversion, assess trends in rice demand in Badung Regency up to 2030, and formulate strategies to enhance food availability. The research was a qualitative descriptive approach using secondary data. The data included agricultural land area, harvested area, production values, and population statistics over a ten-year period. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify the factors influencing land-use change, while the levels of food availability by utilizing secondary data on rice commodity production and population numbers over the course of 10 yr (2012–2022).  Badung Regency covers an area of 418.52 km², with a population of 549,530 in 2021. A rapid population increase occurred between 2020 and 2022, with an additional 1,340 people, which contributed to accelerated agricultural land conversion. The total area of rice field conversion in Badung Regency reached 276.60 hectares, with the highest conversion occurring in Mengwi District (136 hectares). The main driving factors of land conversion were economic pressures related to population growth and infrastructure availability. By 2030, the population of Badung Regency is projected to increase by 16.55%, from 585,392 people in 2022 to 682,313 people. Consequently, rice demand is expected to rise from 61,750.08 tons to 71,973.79 tons in 2030. Strategies to improve food availability focus on reducing land-use conversion through both legal and economic instruments.